How Have Gold, U.S. Stocks, and the Dollar Performed After U.S. Midterm Elections? A Look at Five Elections

Following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, market attention is shifting from the results to the policy outlook and asset prices. For traders, the question is straightforward: after past midterm elections, have gold, the S&P 500, and the U.S. Dollar Index tended to rise or fall?

Based on the statistics provided, this article examines five midterm elections—2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022—and compares price performance 1, 3, 6, and 12 months afterward. In this small sample, gold and the S&P 500 recorded more consistent gains, while the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index was less clear.

Post-Election Performance: Gold Stands Out Over the Short and Medium Term

Each asset and time horizon has five election observations. The figures show price changes, not actual trading returns.

Gold: Gains in All Five Cases Through the First Six Months

Gold showed the most consistent short- and medium-term performance in this dataset. Following all five midterm elections, it rose over the 1-, 3-, and 6-month observation periods, with average gains of 3.56%, 6.87%, and 10.56%, respectively.

Over 12 months, gold rose in four of the five cases. Its average gain increased to 18.97%, while its median gain reached 19.17%. This suggests the average one-year gain was not driven solely by one exceptionally strong result. Still, five observations are far too few to conclude that the pattern will repeat after the next election.

Gold prices are also influenced by real interest rates, inflation expectations, the dollar, and demand for safe-haven assets. A post-election gain alone does not establish that the election caused it.

S&P 500: Gains in All Five Cases at Six and 12 Months

The S&P 500 rose in four of the five cases at both one and three months after the election. At six and 12 months, it rose in all five cases, with average gains of 7.54% and 8.22%, respectively.

One detail is worth noting: although the average 12-month gain was higher than the six-month average, the median 12-month gain was 6.43%, below the six-month median of 8.80%. Averages and medians tell different parts of the story. One figure alone does not support the claim that holding for longer necessarily produces a better result.

For U.S. stocks, corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and the economic cycle may have a more direct effect on subsequent prices than the election itself.

Dollar: The Number of Gains and the Average Return Do Not Always Agree

Unlike gold and U.S. stocks, the U.S. Dollar Index did not show a clear direction. One month after the election, DXY rose in three of the five cases, yet its average change was −0.23%. It also rose in three cases over 12 months, while its average change remained negative at −0.27%.

That is because the number of gains does not capture their size: a few larger declines can outweigh several smaller increases. The six-month results make this especially clear. DXY rose only twice, with an average decline of 1.20% and a median decline of 4.06%.

These five observations therefore provide insufficient evidence of a reliable post-election direction for the dollar. Any assessment of its future performance should also consider interest-rate differentials, monetary policy, and global capital flows.

Historical Data Offer Context, Not a Trading Signal

The most important limitation is the small sample size: just five observations for each time horizon. “Five gains out of five” describes what happened in the past; it does not mean there is a 100% chance of a gain next time. Economic conditions also differed across election years, and historical price movements cannot establish that the elections caused those movements.

For the post-2026 market, these figures are better used as a framework for questions: Will gold maintain its strength? Do earnings and interest-rate expectations support U.S. stocks? Are interest-rate differentials driving the dollar? Until each observation period has elapsed, 2026 should not be added to the completed historical sample above.

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