Update: US Equity Indexes Mixed as Fed Almost Certain to Tighten Monetary Policy, Crude Oil Slumps

01:54 PM EDT, 09/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- (Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.) US equity indexes traded mixed ahead of a likely interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% to 26,152.2, the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to 7,609.5, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed at 52,121.8 after midday. All sectors except energy and financials advanced. Technology and industrials led gainers. Ahead of the Fed's policy announcements on Wednesday, including an update of the Summary of Economic Projections, interest rate traders are now pricing in a 93% probability that the central bank will raise its target rate by 25 basis points, up from 33% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining likelihood is that the Federal Open Market Committee will extend its pause. The Fed should raise rates, as that has never been the question, according to a note from Stifel. "The real question is: Will they? And will they continue hiking?," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, said in the note. "The Committee may be poised to hike this afternoon, but the telltale sign of conviction to tackle inflation - as opposed to a one-time token increase - will be a willingness to follow through with additional hikes into year-end." Retail sales grew 1.2% in August following a 0.5% decline the month before, the Census Bureau said Wednesday. The consensus in a Bloomberg-compiled survey was for a 0.8% increase last month. Sales at gasoline stations jumped 3.1% in August after falling 0.2% the month before, while motor vehicle and parts dealers' receipts rose 0.6% following a 1.8% drop. "Retail sales roared back to life in August following a disappointing performance in July," Ksenia Bushmeneva, economist at TD Economics, said in a report. "Stronger results in the volatile auto and gasoline categories, along with a rebound in online sales, played a role but were not the whole story, given the broad-based gains in core sales." US Treasury yields, however, retreated ahead of the policy decision. The 10-year yield dropped 4.3 basis points to 4.95%, declining from its highest since 2007. The two-year yield slumped 5.3 basis points to 4.61%, after touching multi-year highs this week. Saudi Arabia said a drone launched by the Houthis towards Mecca was intercepted, while the Iran-aligned militia group denied targeting the holy site, calling the accusation a "nauseating lie," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported Wednesday. The Houthis said they targeted oil facilities in Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port and Khamis Mushait airbase, the news report said, adding that Riyadh has not commented on the claims. The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract sank 3.1% to $102.56 per barrel, and the global benchmark North Sea Brent slid 2.7 to $105.86 per barrel. Gold futures jumped 1.3% to $4,389.5, and silver futures rose 1.8% to $65.01. J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) expects earnings from Q2 to Q3 to fall 5% to 10%, Chief Financial Officer Brad Delco said Tuesday on a conference call. The company faced "one of the most acute changes in the cost of purchased transportation," with intra-quarter spot rates rising 30%, Delco said. Shares sank 13%, among the worst performers in the S&P 500.