The $50 billion target falls short, Salesforce (CRM.US) draws another $63 billion blueprint—can it convince Wall Street that the “AI replacement theory” is exaggerated?

Zhihui Finance APP noted that Salesforce (CRM.US) provided a long-term sales outlook exceeding analysts' expectations, signaling to investors that this software company can still drive revenue growth despite mounting competition from artificial intelligence tools.

At the company’s annual conference on Wednesday, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer Robin Washington stated that for the fiscal year ending January 2030, Salesforce expects sales to reach $63 billion. This outlook includes revenue from the acquisition of Informatica, completed in November last year.

According to aggregated data, analysts’ average forecast for the figure was $61.4 billion.

The stock closed at $250.54 in New York with little change in after-hours trading. Since hitting a low on June 22, the stock has rallied by 67%, but it is still down 5.4% year to date.

As a leader in customer management software, Salesforce is under pressure to prove it can thrive in the evolving era of AI-driven products. At this week’s conference, Salesforce heavily promoted its collaboration with renowned AI startup Anthropic PBC, which has helped ease investor concerns about direct competition faced by the company.

Citi analyst Tyler Radke wrote in a report that interactions with customers and partners at the conference were “notably more constructive than a year ago, with increased confidence in Salesforce’s AI product strategy and execution.”

JPMorgan stated that concerns about Salesforce being replaced by AI are “overstated.” Agentforce and Data 360 are monetizing AI capabilities—with a combined annualized recurring revenue (ARR) nearing $3.9 billion, expected to exceed $5 billion by the end of fiscal year 2027, and $10 billion by the end of fiscal year 2030. The current enterprise value/free cash flow ratio of about 11x is below the peer average of around 15x, presenting room for re-rating.

Currently, market sentiment remains broadly optimistic: Of 19 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, 13 rate the stock a “buy” and 6 are neutral, with an average target price of $272. According to Investing.com, the average target price among 56 analysts is $273.37, and none recommend a “sell.”

However, one unavoidable historical fact remains: The company’s revenue target of $50 billion for fiscal year 2026, set at its 2022 Investor Day, ultimately fell short (actual revenue was $41.5 billion). Wall Street widely agrees that whether the $63 billion commitment can be fulfilled hinges on whether subscription revenue returns to double-digit growth in the next 12 to 18 months, and on when Agentforce bookings translate into actual revenue and profit under generally accepted accounting principles.