EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Slips below 179.00 as bearish bias prevails

EUR/JPY declines after three days of gains, trading around 178.90 during Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross trading within a descending channel, keeping the overall bearish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The currency cross’s failure to reclaim these short- and medium-term averages suggests rallies are being capped.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 32 hints at lingering downside pressure, with the cross hovering just above oversold territory rather than staging a robust rebound.

The EUR/JPY cross may fall toward the primary support at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 177.40, followed by nearly an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could target the nine-day EMA of 179.53, followed by the 50-day EMA of 182.84. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 185.10, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.

Euro volatility firms as markets brace for FOMC

Strategists at Scotiabank note that overnight Euro volatility has picked up ahead of the FOMC, with “overnight EUR vol has firmed modestly, implying a breakeven move in spot of about 50 pips.” They point out that this is “a bit below recent peaks,” which in their view suggests “markets may have largely priced in a hawkish Fed outcome” at this stage.