U.S. Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Index Futures Rise, Oil Prices Edge Lower, Triple Witching Arrives Tonight and May Challenge Liquidity

Pre-market Market Trends

1. On the morning of September 18 (Friday) before the U.S. market opens, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.04%, S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.16%, and Nasdaq futures increased by 0.36%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was down 0.93%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.91%, France's CAC40 index dropped 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index slipped 0.97%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.70% to $101.20 per barrel. Brent crude dropped 1.61% to $103.13 per barrel.

Market News

Goldman Sachs: Concerns over ‘profit bubbles’ are exaggerated, S&P 500 could rise to 8,700 next year. Strategists at Goldman Sachs stated that the strong earnings performance of U.S. companies is being supported by robust economic prospects and the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom, meaning that worries about a “profit bubble” are overstated. Data shows that S&P 500 component companies saw their profits surge about 30% in each of the past two quarters, ranking among the strongest on record. Annual profit expectations have also reached the highest level since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021. While this growth suggests that companies are “over-earning” as AI investments soar, Goldman’s strategy team, led by Ben Snider, expects profit growth to slow in future years, rather than collapse altogether. Snider wrote in a report: “Market pricing reflects expectations for continued earnings growth, but also reasonable skepticism regarding the sustainability of current profitability.” Goldman forecasts earnings will increase by 11% next year, potentially pushing the S&P 500 up 14% over the next year to around 8,700 points.

Triple Witching Approaches! Market faces liquidity test this Friday. For tonight, Wall Street is bracing for possible volatility. On Friday, the U.S. stock market will see its quarterly ‘Triple Witching’—the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options. According to Bluekurtic Market Insights, its historical performance is notoriously poor. Performance tracked since 2000 shows a fairly consistent trend: since 2012, the S&P 500 closed lower on 12 of the 14 Triple Witching dates. The only two exceptions were in 2017 and 2025, when it posted marginal gains of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. With more than $2 trillion in notional delta options expiring, market observers warn that this quarterly liquidity event could trigger downside volatility. The impending expirations come during one of the historically toughest months for equities. Despite the S&P 500 showing an unusually calm 0.3% gain so far this September, the massive expiration on Friday could prove the ultimate test for this month’s trajectory.

U.S. Treasury sell-off sees a ‘ray of hope’! 5% high interest lures massive capital inflows. Despite concerns engulfing the world’s largest bond market, some investors are seeing an appealing buying opportunity—yields. For investors, a potential “ray of hope” comes from an opportunity rarely seen since the global financial crisis: buying now and locking in about a 5% annualized return for the next decade or longer. Increasing numbers of asset managers are finding this opportunity hard to resist. According to Morningstar, as of the end of August, U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs saw net inflows of $625 billion this year—the highest level since tracking began in 2010 for the same period. Asset managers including Pacific Investment Management and Vanguard expect this pace of inflows to accelerate, as investors rebalance away from equities to fixed income.

‘New Bond King’ Gundlach warns: Next recession could trigger U.S. debt crisis, Treasuries may lose safe haven status. DoubleLine Capital CEO and “New Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the next U.S. economic downturn could trigger a debt crisis, pushing long-term Treasury yields sharply higher—and shattering the conventional wisdom that “bonds are always a safe haven during economic turmoil.” This scenario could force the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to take unconventional measures, such as the Fed restarting “Operation Twist” to buy long-term bonds, or even engaging in debt restructuring. Gundlach said he is currently focused on low-duration assets to shield DoubleLine’s funds from the impact of further rate spikes. “Once the economy enters a recession, the market will focus intensely on fiscal conditions. The budget deficit could easily reach 12% of GDP. That would amount to about $3 trillion in interest expense per year—an unsustainable burden,” he stated.

Oil’s next stop? JPMorgan can’t give an answer! War’s end unpredictable, ‘temporary supply cut’ assumptions face reset. JPMorgan stated that Middle East energy risks have shifted from constraints on channel passage to threats against alternative transportation routes themselves, making the forecast that “conflict will cause only temporary disruptions and supply will quickly recover” much harder to maintain. In a report, JPMorgan’s analysts noted that previous assumptions that the U.S. government would avoid certain economic red lines—including oil above $100 a barrel, gasoline nearing $5 per gallon, and surging long-term Treasury yields—have already materialized, leaving an exit strategy increasingly unclear. Analysts said that while global stockpiles have been drawn down during the war, there are still sufficient buffers to limit further crude price increases. However, the bank estimates that if Middle Eastern supply stays at current levels, Q4 2026 and December oil prices may be $7 and $8 per barrel higher, respectively, than current estimates of about $80 and $78 a barrel.

Individual Stock News

Nvidia (NVDA.US) growth far from over? Jensen Huang expects chip sales to double in next year. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expects company chip sales could double over the next year amid accelerating adoption of AI technology across industries, underscoring continuous robust global AI infrastructure demand. Even as markets focus increasingly on the potential risks of rapid AI development, Huang remains optimistic about the industry outlook. Nvidia’s previously announced earnings guidance also indicated sustained strong AI demand. Last month, the company predicted revenue in the next fiscal year could rise by about 70% year-on-year. Nvidia also stated that if sufficient chip supplies are secured to meet the rapidly growing market demand, revenue could even double.

SpaceX (SPCX.US) AI division eyes ‘bankruptcy data’! Plans to acquire distressed startup customer and operational information to ramp up Grok training. According to insiders, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has internally discussed buying customer and operational data from distressed or failed startups, hoping to obtain high-quality data at relatively low cost to improve its AI models. While SpaceXAI is exploring more external data sources, Musk’s business empire remains a vital Grok data source—including information generated by SpaceX employees. This suggests SpaceXAI’s future data strategy may adopt a parallel “internal + external” model: continuing to utilize data generated across Musk’s companies and platforms like SpaceX and X, while also purchasing external datasets to further expand the breadth and specialization of training data.

Lucid (LCID.US) CEO: Restructuring consultant partnership complete, path to profitability emerges. Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson stated that the electric vehicle maker has concluded its partnership with restructuring advisory firm AlixPartners LLP, representing a clearer turnaround path for the troubled company. Previously, the company brought in AlixPartners to help reach its $1.4 billion cash savings target for this year. Rawlinson has been evaluating operations, seeking to optimize business, cut costs, and ensure the smooth launch of new midsize vehicles. After taking the helm earlier this year, Rawlinson has implemented large-scale cost reductions, leadership changes, and layoffs to improve in the face of sluggish U.S. consumer demand.

Key Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:15 U.S. August Industrial Production MoM (%)