Next Week's Hot Topics Preview: Central Bank Officials from Multiple Countries to Speak Intensively

Huitong Finance, September 18—— The Federal Reserve's blackout period ended, statements from multiple officials combined with a series of economic data, as the market awaits policy signals

Next week (September 21-September 25), the global financial market faces a crucial window with a flurry of central bank speeches and the concentrated release of PMI, employment, and trade data from several countries. This includes China's LPR announcement and power usage, manufacturing indicators from Europe and the US, US employment and consumption data, along with policy signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Swiss National Bank, and the rollover of US oil futures contracts. Multiple variables could resonate to impact foreign exchange rates, commodities, and equity asset pricing. Investors are advised to closely follow policy commentary and data deviations, manage positions prudently, and be prepared for risks and opportunities arising from short-term volatility.

LPR Announcement, Central Bank Officials Worldwide to Speak in Turn

On Monday (September 21), China will release the 1-5 year LPR along with national electricity consumption data. LPR pricing directly impacts domestic credit and real estate expectations, while electricity usage is a high-frequency indicator for the domestic real economy's performance.

Internationally, 2027 FOMC voting member and short-term hawk, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, will give a public speech; his views will influence market expectations on the Fed's rate cut pace. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will also speak, providing further guidance on Canada’s monetary policy.

ADP Employment Report Arrives, Multiple Top Fed Officials Speak

On Tuesday (September 22), the US will release the weekly ADP employment data, a leading indicator for nonfarm payrolls that reflects the state of private sector employment; Europe will simultaneously announce the September Consumer Confidence Index, gauging Eurozone households' willingness to consume.

In terms of central bank speeches, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will deliver remarks.

Crude Inventories & Global Manufacturing PMIs, US Oil Futures Rollover

On Wednesday (September 23), commodity and manufacturing sentiment indicators will debut in sync. US API and EIA will release crude oil inventory data, driving short-term price volatility.

France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, and US will publish September SPGI Manufacturing PMIs—key global manufacturing sentiment indicators closely tracked by public fund managers.



NYMEX WTI crude oil October futures contract, affected by the rollover, will hold its last pit session trade at 2:30 AM, September 23 (UTC+8), and final electronic trading at 5:00 AM (UTC+8). Please pay close attention to exchange delivery notices to manage risk.

Australia Unemployment Rate, US Trade & Jobless Data, Multiple Central Banker Fireside Chats

On Thursday (September 24), Australia will release its unemployment rate, indicating the strength of the local labor market; the US announces Q2 trade data and weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, further testing the resilience of the US employment market.

The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with markets widely expecting no change at 0%.

Central bank events intensify:

US Durable Goods & University of Michigan Confidence Wrap Up, Williams Speaks Again

On Friday (September 25), the US will release August durable goods consumption data, along with September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Durable goods orders reflect corporate capital expenditure activity,

Risk Warning: Official Remarks, Data Surprises, and Futures Rollover Disruptions

Besides the core economic data and central bank events mentioned above, investors should pay particular attention to the following four details and potential risks in next week’s trading:

Repeated revisions due to diverging Federal Reserve official views: Multiple permanent and rotating voting members will speak this week. Goolsbee’s hawkish stance, and changing rhetoric by core officials like Williams and Jefferson, can quickly shift rate cut expectations back and forth, amplifying volatility in the USD, US Treasury yields, and US stocks.

Global demand worries if PMIs miss expectations: With SPGI manufacturing PMIs released simultaneously for France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, and US, synchronized weakness would force the market to reprice the pressure from slowing global demand, suppressing commodity and risk asset prices.

Liquidity disruption from US oil futures contract rollover: The expiry and rollover of the NYMEX WTI October contract, with different platforms having different expiry times, may cause short-term price spikes and liquidity tightening. Position traders need to adjust their holdings in advance to guard against rollover shocks.

Unexpected impact from employment and inflation expectations data: The consecutive release of US ADP, initial claims, and University of Michigan inflation expectations means that if labor market strength or inflation expectations exceed forecasts, markets may delay pricing in rate cuts; conversely, if data weakens, rate cut expectations will strengthen, causing asset prices to respond quickly.