The Indian stock market has been facing continuous pressure over the past few weeks, with foreign investors increasingly pulling out their funds. While the local currency also remains weak, concerns about liquidity and investor confidence arise. The current situation has also sparked concerns about the impact of the prevailing uncertainty on Indian crypto traders.
Beyond this, other areas have also experienced a similar downturn. IT stocks fell by 11.2% while financial services dropped by 6.3%. Mid-cap stocks also declined, with a drop of 7.6%. This shows that the pressure was not limited to large companies.
One of the main factors impacting the current decline in the Indian stock market is the FPI outflows. But the reasons behind these outflows deserve more attention, as they could have broader implications.
Mainly, the FPI outflow is driven by changing global interest rates. With higher interest rates and Treasury yields, dollar-linked assets are becoming more attractive. Thus, foreign investors may turn towards them, abandoning Indian shares.
An additional factor here is the weakening dollar. When the dollar gains attention, it could add further pressure on the Indian rupee, which is already under pressure. This makes the situation more difficult for foreign investors.
Rising oil prices are another major concern for the Indian stock market. As crude oil prices increase amid geopolitical tensions, India’s import costs surge, adding to the inflationary concerns.
The rupee is also under pressure over the past few weeks. The currency is now significantly weaker against the dollar, briefly crossing the ₹96 per dollar mark on September 29. On October 1, it is trading around ₹95.99 per dollar.
This creates another layer of uncertainty for Indian traders. A weaker rupee could affect the value of dollar-linked assets and trading costs even when the underlying asset is moving independently of Indian stocks.
It is important to note that a weaker stock market could automatically push investors to put money into crypto. Even though both of them compete for some of the same risk capital, they are two different markets. However, when they become cautious towards the stock market, they are likely to stay away from other risk assets like crypto. They won’t simply move from stocks to crypto, but may instead reduce exposure to speculative assets.
This is important for the derivatives market as it already accounts for about 80% or more of crypto trading volumes on Indian exchanges. This means that a change in risk appetite could potentially be seen through futures activity and leverage.
While Bitcoin is a globally traded asset, Indian traders are still affected by local currency conditions. A weaker rupee can push the BTC-INR rate higher even if the Bitcoin price in dollars remains unchanged. At the same time, a stronger dollar can make USD-linked assets more expensive in rupee terms. Thus, if liquidity continues to tighten, Indian traders may reduce leverage and speculative positions.
Notably, there is no single signal to watch in the upcoming days. A single signal cannot simply explain how the Indian stock market will perform. For instance, FPI flows can reveal the sentiment of foreign investors on the market. USD/INR highlights the pressure on the Indian rupee.
Meanwhile, crypto volumes may provide the most direct view of trader behaviour. When crypto volumes and leverage decline along with the weakening rupee and increased FPI outflows, it could point to a broader risk-off sentiment.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});Interestingly, the stock market selloff could hint at Indian traders’ willingness to take risks. While the Nifty 50 has fallen 6.1% in September and FPIs have sold $2.7 billion in Indian equities, it is clear that investors are already facing a tougher market.
