CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 35.5%
According to CME Federal Reserve Watch: The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 64.5%, and the probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points is 35.5%. By May, the likelihood of keeping interest rates unchanged is at 5.4%, while there's a cumulative chance of a rate cut by 25 basis points at 62.1%, and a cumulative chance for a reduction by 50 basis points stands at 32.5%.
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Kalshi approved to launch perpetual gold and silver futures, competing with traditional exchanges
Kalshi has received CFTC approval to launch gold and silver perpetual futures on Thursday, becoming the first approved non-cryptocurrency perpetual futures product in the United States. Since the launch of cryptocurrency perpetual futures in May, the notional trading volume of related contracts has reached 44 billions USD. Traditional exchanges such as CME Group have faced pressure on their stock prices, and CME has even sued the CFTC in an attempt to halt the expansion of such products. Kalshi is also applying for the listing of US stock, copper, and forex perpetual futures.
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