Major News on April 14

BMO expects consecutive rate hikes in October and December, with a total of three increases potentially wiping out all rate cut gains for 2025. Vanguard believes "three consecutive hikes" is a reasonable starting point, but the actual number could be as high as six. There are historical exceptions: in 1997, the Federal Reserve raised rates only once and took no further action for the following 18 months. Meanwhile, trillion-dollar debt financing by AI giants, private credit exposure in the insurance industry, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% are the most dangerous pressure points in this rate hike cycle.

Goldman Sachs has shifted from predicting a rate hold to betting on a 25 basis point hike next week, stating that this change is not due to particularly bad inflation data—the August CPI was not perfect, but it wasn’t alarming either. The real key is that hawkish comments from Waller have already shaped market expectations: "If the inflation data isn’t perfect, there will be a rate hike." If the Federal Reserve backs down now, its credibility will suffer a serious blow and long-term interest rates could react sharply and immediately.