JPMorgan expects bitcoin's price to dip post-halving, views event as 'already priced in'
JPMorgan analysts warn of a potential bitcoin price drop after this week’s halving event.Bitcoin mining hashrate is also expected to decline significantly post the halving, according to the analysts.
"We do not expect bitcoin price increases post-halving as it has already been priced in," JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report on Wednesday, reiterating their previous similar views. "In fact, we see a downside for the bitcoin price post-halving for several reasons," the analysts said.
These reasons include bitcoin still being in " overbought conditions ," according to an analysis of open interest in bitcoin futures. Additionally, the bitcoin price is still well above JPMorgan's volatility-adjusted price of $45,000 compared to gold and remains above its projected production cost post-halving of $42,000 , the analysts reiterated.
Tepid crypto venture capital funding this year to date, despite the crypto resurgence, could also drag down bitcoin price post-halving, the analysts restated.
The current price of bitcoin is around $61,500, according to The Block's prices page .
Bitcoin hashrate likely to see 'significant drop' post-halving
The bitcoin halving event — expected to occur this week — will reduce the issuance rewards for bitcoin miners from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125. The reduction is expected to impact bitcoin miners and bitcoin mining hashrate or compute power, the analysts said.
"As unprofitable bitcoin miners exit the bitcoin network, we anticipate a significant drop in the hashrate and consolidation among bitcoin miners with a highest share for publicly-listed bitcoin miners," the analysts said, reiterating their previous view.
Following the halving, some Bitcoin mining firms may consider diversifying into regions with lower energy costs, like Latin America or Africa, aiming to repurpose their inefficient mining rigs for salvage value, according to analysts.
They could mine Bitcoin hard fork cryptocurrencies, but that's "highly unlikely" as these rigs are specially designed for mining bitcoin, the analysts said. But even if they do, they would likely remain unprofitable due to the substantially lower market cap and liquidity of these cryptocurrencies compared to bitcoin, the analysts concluded.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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