SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240711): Be careful with macro data
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech in which he affirmed the Feds past efforts and achievements in reducing inflation by cooling the labor market, and said that the labor market is no longer the cause of inflation. But on the other hand, the audience could feel that his overall wording was more rigorous this time, and he did not give clear guidance on the policy direction. Judging from the markets reaction, the SP and Nasdaq have been eager to set new highs in the past two days. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated slightly, perhaps waiting for instructions from tonights CPI data. If the data meets expectations (3.1%), it can confirm to a certain extent that inflation is indeed moving towards the Feds target of 2%, and it can also provide support for its interest rate cut in September.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Risk markets, including cryptocurrencies, are paying close attention to the data releases today and tomorrow. Judging from the options data, the overall IV level represented by the middle and back ends is gradually declining, especially for ETH, which is 2-3% lower than the previous day; but the end-of-day options are still at a high level, which fully reflects the traders game on this macro data.
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit (as of 11 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
From the perspective of transactions, a feature of recent transactions is that the P/C Ratio has increased significantly, basically maintaining at around 1: 1, just like today, a large number of Puts were sold on ETH 19 JU L2 4, and the Sell Put Spread on 26 JU L2 4 also became the focus of market attention, explaining the return of the Vol Skew on the front end of ETH. BTC has both Sell Call Spread and Sell Put Spread, which is relatively cautious about short-term fluctuations.
Data Source: Deribit, ETH overall transaction distribution; SignalPlus, ETH 25 dRR
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends. SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
High interest rates are not the "end" of US stocks? Is profitability the real key?
JPMorgan believes that profit growth is the key factor determining the resilience of U.S. stock valuations. Data since 1950 shows an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and S&P 500 valuations. Based on current profit levels, yields would need to reach about 5%-6% to significantly compress valuations. As long as profit growth remains above 15%, there is still room for valuations to be re-rated. If the yield curve steepens in a bear market, cyclical sectors such as energy and financials will benefit more; if it flattens, technology stocks will have a relative advantage.
The "Outlier" Investment Art in the New Era of Berky
Metaplanet to launch Hong Kong Bitcoin investment subsidiary with $1 million capital
Chevron (CVX.US) explores alternative hedging for Middle East supply disruptions: targets Argentina and the Mediterranean to drive global LNG growth, seeks deal with India
Chevron is focusing on Argentina and the Mediterranean region, seeking global growth in liquefied natural gas, and plans to reach an agreement with India.
Crypto prices
More
