Review of 2015-2017 data: Short-term holders may face a "crazy" market in the last five months

CryptoChan2025/02/17 10:02

By:CryptoChan

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Looking back from 2015 to 2017, the floating profit period for short-term holders of Bitcoin (holding time less than 155 days) lasted for about two and a half years. From 2023 to now, the floating profit of short-term holders of Bitcoin on the chain has also lasted for more than two years and one month. The trend is surprisingly similar to the market environment at that time.

The black lines in the chart represent the price fluctuations of Bitcoin, while the orange lines show the ratio of Bitcoin price to the average cost of short-term holders (i.e. the ratio of the average cost of short-term holders' chips to the market price). When this ratio is higher than 1, it means that short-term holders are in a floating profit state, otherwise it means floating loss, and when it equals 1, it is in a break-even state. This ratio reflects the overall profit or loss of short-term holders, and is also closely related to the Bitcoin market price, showing a highly synchronized characteristic with the market trend.

According to the chart analysis, the Bitcoin market is currently in a similar state to 2015-2017. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a significant increase, and the floating profits of short-term holders gradually increased. Currently, although the market is still full of volatility, the floating profits of short-term holders have lasted for more than two years, and the volatility and changes in market sentiment have obvious similarities, which provides a highly potential trading window for short-term investors.

From 2015 to early 2017, the rapid rise in the price of Bitcoin and the gradual increase in the cost of short-term holders further increased the floating profits of short-term holders, ultimately leading to the last few months of the price surge. Combined with the current market trend, since December 2023, the price of Bitcoin has continued to rise, and the floating profits of short-term holders are still expanding. This may mean that we are about to enter a similar market cycle - a "crazy" stage full of opportunities.

With the passage of time, the market may enter a high-risk, high-return stage again in the next few months, and short-term holders may face a final "big market".

Review of 2015-2017 data: Short-term holders may face a

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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