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Morgan Stanley’s research indicates that the market has seriously overestimated Toshiba’s expansion scale — the doubling of capacity at its Philippines plant over two years translates to an annualized growth rate of about 30%, which is similar to the overall industry supply growth rate and far lower than demand growth. More importantly, channel checks show that Seagate and Western Digital have no intention of following suit with capacity expansion, and there are no signs of loosening in industry pricing.

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET. 0637 GMT - SK Innovation is likely to benefit from higher lubricant base oil prices, LS Securities analyst K.H. Chung says. The South Korean refiner is a global leader in premium lubricant base oils, producing about 80,000 barrels of Group III base oils a day, Chung writes in a note. She expects the supply shortage of lubricant base oils to persist for more than a year. Tight supply of kerosene and diesel and wider refining margins could also continue to boost the company's earnings, she adds. LS Securities upgrades the stock to buy from hold and raises its target price to 187,000 won from 126,000 won. Shares end 2.6% higher at 158,000 won. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com) 0113 GMT - YTL Power International could see upside from its expanding data-center and AI infrastructure, as well as renewed power-generation opportunities, says Hong Leong IB analyst Daniel Wong in a note. Its Kulai and Sedenak West hubs offer 2.4GW of potential data-center capacity, while its AI-GPU capacity could scale to 100MW or more and support a new services business. The procurement of seven gas turbines totaling 5.25GW also positions YTL for power-generation growth and supports its expanding data-center pipeline, he reckons. Higher water tariffs and planned treatment plants at its unit Ranhill Utilities should support earnings as Johor's water demand rises, he adds. Hong Leong raises its target price to 8.08 ringgit from 7.58 ringgit and keeps a buy rating. Shares are 1.4% higher at 5.62 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com) The price fetched by Amplitude Energy for its natural gas in 1Q should improve on the prior three months, supporting growth in revenue. That's the view of Bell Potter analyst Stuart Howe, who points to higher gas volumes in the quarter. Also, spot natural gas prices recovered to a quarterly average of A$9.77 per gigajoule, from A$8.42 per gigajoule in 4Q of FY26. Amplitude is due to report its 1Q p