QCP Capital: Bitcoin is consolidating around $75,000. If the stock market plunges again, it may fail to hold its position
PANews reported on April 9th that Singaporean cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital stated that after the United States imposed a new round of tariffs on China, the overnight market fell sharply, with total tariffs on Chinese imported goods reaching 104%. The market volatility remains severe, with the Volatility Index (VIX) maintaining above 40 for three consecutive trading days. Even traditional safe-haven assets did not perform as expected. Safe-haven assets failed to provide effective hedging; as investors reduced risk and met additional margin requirements, gold and US Treasury bonds were sold off. There are signs of tension in Trump's strategy of refinancing U.S debt at lower interest rates, causing bond yields across all maturities to soar.
The yield on ten-year U.S Treasury bonds reached 4.50% at one point while the yield on thirty-year bonds briefly exceeded 5%. Credit spreads continue to widen reflecting a comprehensive deterioration in risk sentiment. Trump does not seem to be adjusting his strategy but is doubling down in each retaliatory action similar to a Martingale strategy. As China holds most of the initiative, the question becomes: how much more can America invest?
The market currently hopes for two forms of support - "Trump put options" or "Fed put options" - to provide bottom-line support. However, neither form seems likely to appear immediately. With unemployment stable and signs of inflation recovery, it is possible that Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rate levels in foreseeable future.
This contrasts sharply with market pricing which reflects expectations for four rate cuts by 2025 including speculation about inter-meeting cuts. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $75,000 but this level could collapse if stock markets fall significantly again. Ethereum continues its poor performance falling towards $1,400 – levels last seen since early-2023 . Amid increased market volatility , cryptocurrency return strategies have regained attention . Increased implied volatility provides attractive opportunities to earn spreads through structured trades.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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