After the announcement of the US CPI, the probability of the Federal Reserve remaining inactive in May is 79.1%
According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May has dropped to 79.1%, and the probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points has risen to 20.9%. The likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates steady until June is at 16.5%, with a cumulative chance for a rate cut by 25 basis points at 67% and a cumulative chance for a rate cut by 50 basis points at 16.5%.
Before the CPI announcement, the odds of the Fed holding steady on interest rates in May were at 83.5%, with chances for a reduction by 25 basis points standing at 16.5%. The possibility that the Fed will keep its current policy until June was pegged at about 27.1%, while there was an estimated probability of around61.7% for an accumulated decrease by up to twenty-five base points, and approximately11.1% for an accumulated decrease up to fifty base points.
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