QCP Capital: BTC May Remain Range-Bound as Macro Narrative Shifts from Protectionism to Trade Optimism
According to QCP Capital, the United States and China have agreed to temporarily cancel some tariffs, pushing the US stock market up by 3%. Gold prices once fell nearly 3% before partially recovering. After initially declining, BTC and ETH stabilized at approximately $103,000 and $2,400, respectively. BTC's dominance fell below 63%, while altcoins like ETH performed well. BTC continues to oscillate between its identity as "digital gold" and its role as a risk asset, creating uncertainty in its direction. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, BTC may remain range-bound. However, a long-term investment perspective might support back-end options demand, reduce front-end put hedging demand, and lead to a steepening of the volatility curve. In contrast, ETH's trend is clearer. The funding environment remains neutral, and options are skewed bearish, indicating that its breakout is not driven by speculation. The breakout above $2,400 coincides with the Pectra upgrade, and the re-emergence of long-term options flow may suggest that ETH is becoming the next major allocation target in the market.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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