"Scary Data" + Powell's Arrival, Market May Experience Significant Volatility

On May 15, at 20:30 tonight, the United States will release retail sales data ("fear data") and the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). These data could significantly influence market expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Weaker-than-expected U.S. PPI and retail sales data may rekindle dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve, hitting the dollar and providing much-needed support for gold prices.

To preemptively address the impact of U.S. tariffs, tonight's retail sales data is expected to show significant growth (though some voices suggest the data may fall short of expectations), while the U.S. PPI inflation annual rate for April may drop to 2.5%. From a data preview perspective, the interpretation of these two major data points tonight may be contradictory, making it difficult for investors to draw directional conclusions.

Ten minutes after the release of these two important regular data points, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will take the stage at 20:40 to deliver the opening remarks for the second Federal Reserve Thomas Laubach Research Conference. This conference will focus on research in monetary policy and economics, and is expected to provide an academic perspective for the Federal Reserve's commitment to conducting a monetary policy framework review every five years. The conference will continue until the 16th. (Jin10)