Strategist: A Few Fed Officials May Lower Rate Cut Expectations for This Year, Enough to Shift the Outlook
According to ChainCatcher, Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at financial services firm Ebury, stated that the baseline forecast for most policymakers remains two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Given the significant uncertainty surrounding tariffs, they may not have enough confidence to substantially alter their outlook.
However, there is a risk that a minority of officials may see the scope for rate cuts this year as less than previously expected, which could be enough to shift the situation toward only a 25 basis point cut in 2025. A hawkish dot plot and Powell’s remarks emphasizing the lack of urgency to lower rates could provide some room for the US dollar to strengthen in the latter half of this week.
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CFTC: As of the week ending October 6, net short positions in euro, pound, and Swiss franc; net long positions in yen
1. The net short position for the Swiss franc is 23,740 contracts. 2. The net short position for the British pound is 97,611 contracts. 3. The net short position for the euro is 99,332 contracts. 4. The net long position for the Japanese yen is 62,325 contracts.
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