Key Notes
- Hayes predicts a short-term Bitcoin drop to $90,000 amid market volatility.
- US bank-issued stablecoins could unlock trillions in liquidity for Bitcoin and Treasuries.
- Bitcoin is currently trading just below $110,000, up by 1.85% in the past day.
Bitcoin BTC $109 636 24h volatility: 0.6% Market cap: $2.18 T Vol. 24h: $29.32 B could continue to consolidate and may even see a drop to the $90,000–$95,000 range before resuming its upward trajectory, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
In his latest blog post , Hayes argues that while a correction may disturb traders in the short term, it could pave the way for a powerful rally fueled by US bank-issued stablecoins.
Hayes noted the mounting challenges faced by the US Treasury amid record debt issuance. He believes the Treasury will eventually need to tap new liquidity sources to prevent interest rates from spiking.
Hayes predicts that fully regulated stablecoins, such as one recently announced by JPMorgan , could absorb idle retail deposits and bank reserves, turning them into demand for short-term Treasury bills.
He suggests that this process could inject liquidity into markets, similar to quantitative easing but without requiring direct action from the Federal Reserve.
Stablecoin Regulation Progresses
The forecast aligns with the growing momentum in Washington around stablecoin regulation. Just last month, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act with broad bipartisan support.
Hayes argues that this regulatory clarity will allow traditional banks to leverage their vast retail networks and Fed access to convert deposits into stablecoins seamlessly.
He estimates that if even a portion of the $17 trillion in US bank deposits were moved into stablecoin products, it could unlock around $6.8 trillion in new demand for Treasury debt. This influx could then funnel liquidity into risk assets like Bitcoin.
"Quid Pro Stablecoin" is a discussion on how US banks adopting stablecoins can provide $6.8 trillion of buying power for The BBC's shitty treasuries.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 3, 2025
An Opportunity Before the Next Leg Up?
Hayes has reiterated his bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a price of over $1 million by 2028. However, in the short term, he warns that the market could see volatility as traders take profits and await further signals from the Federal Reserve.
Historically, such cycles have led to stronger rallies, and Hayes views any dip toward $90,000 as a strategic buying opportunity.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,789, with a 1.85% daily gain and a 20% uptick in 24-hour trading volume.
BTC 4-hour price chart | Source: Trading View
After peaking at $112,000 in May, BTC has been mostly consolidating between the $100,000–$110,000 range.
