Key Notes
- Analysts expect a 0.3% monthly CPI rise and 2.7% annual inflation, with core inflation climbing to 3.0%, raising concerns about Fed rate cuts anytime soon.
- Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit a record 3.20%, with long-term bonds losing 45% in value since 2019.
- Following BTC's record high, long-term holders and dormant whales have started offloading, leading to $600 million in liquidations.
The broader crypto market is seeing some volatility today ahead of the US CPI data release, while Japan’s bond market crisis flashes deeper concerns.
Bitcoin BTC $116 748 24h volatility: 4.6% Market cap: $2.32 T Vol. 24h: $70.83 B long-term holders have been cashing out after the BTC price hit an all-time high of $123,000 on Monday.
How Will the US CPI Affect the Crypto Market?
June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, with the annual headline inflation rising to approximately 2.7%.
Core inflation is projected to climb to around 3.0%, marking its fastest pace since February.
Key contributors to the uptick include tariff-related increases in goods. Although the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged during its July 29 meeting, market participants are closely watching for a potential rate cut in September.
US President Donald Trump has called for the immediate resignation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell , while demanding a 300 basis points cut, the largest in US history.
With US jobs data showing strength, inflation remains stubborn and continues to drift away from the Fed’s 2% target. On top of that, the lasting impact of Trump tariffs could make the situation worse going forward.
Amid changing economic signals, markets are pricing in just over 50 basis points of interest rate cuts for 2025, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stays cautious about easing.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool , the probability of a September rate cut has dipped to around 60%, down from 65% earlier this month, reflecting growing uncertainty over the Fed’s next move.
Japan’s Bond Market Crisis Worsens, Crypto Market Reacts
Japanese treasury yields have quietly surged to record highs, with the 30-year government bond yield climbing to 3.20% on Tuesday.
Since 2019, Japan’s 30-year bonds have lost nearly 45% in value, reflecting the severity of the ongoing bond market sell-off.
Over the past year, the 30-year yield has risen by 100 basis points, causing significant unrealized losses throughout the financial sector.
Unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings for four of Japan’s largest life insurers have quadrupled over the last 12 months, reaching a record $60 billion in Q1 2025.
Over the last year, Japan’s 30Y bond yield has surged 100 basis points.
This created massive unrealized losses for financial institutions.
Unrealized losses on domestic bonds for 4 of Japan’s largest life insurers QUADRUPLED in 12 months, to a record $60 billion in Q1 2025. pic.twitter.com/YnYettaSwy
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 15, 2025
Amid the macro uncertainties, the Bitcoin price has corrected 5% from the top of $123,000 and is currently trading around $117K.
Following the BTC all-time highs, dormant Bitcoin whales and long-term holders have resolved to profit booking.
Liquidations across the broader crypto market have soared to $600 million. Following BTC’s trajectory, altcoins have corrected as well, dropping by a similar magnitude of 3-5%. Ethereum ETH $2 974 24h volatility: 1.7% Market cap: $358.77 B Vol. 24h: $38.79 B , Solana SOL $159.1 24h volatility: 4.3% Market cap: $85.18 B Vol. 24h: $10.65 B , XRP XRP $2.84 24h volatility: 3.4% Market cap: $167.61 B Vol. 24h: $11.40 B , and Dogecoin DOGE $0.19 24h volatility: 7.7% Market cap: $28.62 B Vol. 24h: $7.18 B , have all entered steep corrections.
