Bitwise CIO: The Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Over, Future Growth Will Be Steady and Sustainable

According to ChainCatcher, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated on social media that the four-year cryptocurrency cycle has "ceased to be effective," and that the future will see "sustained and stable prosperity";

• The forces that previously created the four-year cycle are weakening:

1. Halving occurs every four years;
2. The interest rate cycle is now positive for cryptocurrencies, rather than negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022);
3. Explosion risks have been reduced due to improved regulation and institutionalization of the space;

• Stronger forces are now operating on timelines that are not synchronized with the four-year cycle:

1. Asset inflows into ETFs represent a 5-10 year trend. This trend began in 2024;
2. Broader institutional adoption is just beginning (ETFs are still being approved on national account platforms, and pension and endowment funds are only now starting to consider cryptocurrencies, etc.);
3. The regulatory process will officially begin in January 2025 and will last for several years;
4. Wall Street is only just starting to enter the cryptocurrency sector and will invest billions of dollars over the coming quarters and years. This began with the passage of the "Genius Act" this month.

Hougan believes that the long-term positive forces for cryptocurrencies will outweigh the classic "four-year cycle" forces, and that 2026 will be a good year, resembling "sustained and stable prosperity" rather than a supercycle.