Arthur Hayes Bold Prediction: $10 Trillion Stablecoin Wave Incoming, ENA, ETHFI, and HYPE to See Epic Growth

Chainfeeds Guide:

I believe ENA can rise 51 times from its current level.

Source:

Author:

Arthur Hayes

Opinion:

Arthur Hayes: Bessent points out that U.S. Treasury bonds have long depreciated relative to gold, and foreign central banks have shifted to hoarding gold, while the U.S. government continues to sacrifice bondholders in its monetary policy. The new tool he proposes is stablecoins: issuers supported by U.S. Treasury approval and regulatory backing deposit dollars in U.S. banks or purchase T-bills, earning net interest margin (NIM) by issuing stablecoins. Its operation is similar to a narrow bank: authorized participants wire dollars, the issuer mints an equivalent amount of stablecoins, and the funds are invested in Treasury bills to earn interest. Upon redemption, Treasury bills are sold, dollars are returned, and stablecoins are destroyed. This model is close to cash due to its low duration risk. Legally, the U.S. government guarantees TBTF bank deposits and T-bills against default risk, making stablecoin deposits risk-free in nominal dollars. In contrast, Eurodollar deposits no longer have the same safety; once the U.S. stops backstopping non-U.S. banks, funds will naturally flow to stablecoin issuers. Bessent envisions that stablecoins could absorb $10–13 trillion in Eurodollar deposits, becoming massive rigid buyers of Treasury bills, thereby bypassing the Federal Reserve’s direct control over short-term yields. This logic means the Fed’s control over the yield curve will be marginalized, and the U.S. Treasury can use stablecoin demand to lock in debt financing sources. In the Global South, social media may become the Trojan horse for promoting stablecoins. If platforms like WhatsApp integrate wallets, users can directly use stablecoins like USDT for cross-border payments, bypassing local banking systems and weakening central banks’ control over money supply. Even if local governments try to block it, users will circumvent restrictions via VPNs, as social media has become a necessity. Once stablecoins penetrate the retail sector, they will not only serve as a store of value but also enter the DeFi ecosystem, driving the prosperity of on-chain applications. To compete for users, stablecoin issuers will share part of the NIM with stakers. For example, users can stake 1,000 USDT on an exchange to obtain an interest-bearing asset, psUSDT, which can be used as collateral for trading, lending, and derivatives operations. This mechanism will increase DeFi’s total value locked (TVL), becoming a leading indicator of future cash flows. Bessent predicts that stablecoin circulation could reach $10 trillion by 2028, creating unprecedented capital inflows for DeFi. Specifically, Ethena (USDe), with yields higher than the federal funds rate, could become a savings tool; Ether.fi provides stablecoin consumption cards, enabling payment scenarios; Hyperliquid, as a derivatives DEX, is expected to become the world’s largest exchange by leveraging stablecoin inflows. Bessent’s core strategy is to use stablecoins to reshape dollar hegemony. He believes the combined $34 trillion market of Eurodollars and Global South deposits will flow into the stablecoin system under the influence of sanctions and profit motives. Once capital shifts, local central banks’ control over the public’s money will be weakened, and with the support of the Trump administration, U.S. tech giants can popularize stablecoin wallets on social media, embedding the dollar payment system into the daily economy of billions of people. Meanwhile, stablecoins will also become a key tool for the U.S. Treasury to manipulate Treasury bill demand. Bessent makes it clear that Trump will not cut the fiscal deficit, and the deficit can only rely on stablecoins to absorb debt. He expects future headlines to revolve around topics such as offshore dollar regulation, weaponization of central bank swap lines, requirements for stablecoin issuers to hold funds in U.S. banks/T-bills, tech giant wallet integration, and active statements from the Trump administration. This means stablecoins will evolve from on-chain tools to national strategic weapons. As a result, Maelstrom is firmly optimistic about the stablecoin sector, positioning in $ENA, $ETHFI, and $HYPE, and betting on Codex as the potential stablecoin infrastructure. Ultimately, Bessent’s vision is that stablecoins will become the new financial pipeline of “dollar peace,” allowing dollar hegemony to continue.