Macron changes five prime ministers in two years: Who might take over the "hot potato" of French Prime Minister?
Macron is facing a tough decision. Amid parliamentary turmoil and divided public opinion, there are five completely different paths for selecting a prime minister, each representing a political gamble.
1. Cleansing and Repetition
1. Possible candidates: Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu (39 years old), Labor Minister Catherine Vautrin (65 years old), Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin (42 years old)
2. The simplest and most straightforward approach is to select another centrist candidate who aligns with Macron's core policies. The problem is that if the "old routine" continues, it is likely to lead to the same result—failure, and ultimately being dismissed by parliament.
2. Turning to the Left
1. Possible candidate: Current Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure (57 years old)
2. Since the Socialist Party broke away from the alliance led by the far-left "France Unbowed," the idea of appointing a Socialist as Prime Minister has become more feasible. Olivier Faure has publicly expressed his desire to replace Bérou, but a clear shift to the left may provoke opposition from the traditional right, who might support the budget and the government, or might vote against and force the government to step down.
3. Turning to the Right
1. Possible candidates: Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau (64 years old), other current leaders of the Republican Party
2. Some members of the Conservative former President Nicolas Sarkozy's party have stated that they could accept a left-wing Prime Minister. However, the current party leader, Bruno Retailleau, made it clear over the weekend that he opposes a Socialist Prime Minister. Out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the Republicans hold only 49, so turning to the right would be a huge political gamble.
4. "Appeasing Both Sides"
1. Possible candidates: Former Prime Minister during Hollande's term Bernard Cazeneuve (62 years old), Jean-Yves Le Drian (78 years old) who served in both Hollande and Macron's governments, current President of the Court of Auditors Pierre Moscovici (67 years old), current Finance Minister Eric Lombard (67 years old)
2. If Macron wants to win over the left without completely alienating the right, he could choose someone outside the current party politics, such as an older left-wing figure. Eric Lombard worked closely with the left decades ago but is now loyal to Macron's pro-business policy agenda. Bernard Cazeneuve has also distanced himself from the new generation of Socialists.
5. Technocrats
1. Possible candidates: President of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council Thierry Beaudet (63 years old), current Governor of the Bank of France Villeroy (66 years old)
2. If no political figure is suitable, Macron may try to appoint a Prime Minister regarded as a "pure technocrat". However, appointing a technocrat as Prime Minister would, to some extent, mean that Macron is admitting political failure.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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