Goldman Sachs Trader: Beware Economic Data Cracks Halting U.S. Stock Rally

Jinse Finance reported that a macro trader at Goldman Sachs stated that investors need to remain vigilant over the next 12 months to identify which economic data may pose a threat to this record-breaking stock market rally. Paul Chervone of the bank pointed out that employment market data will play a key role in providing early warnings of economic cracks. He cited data from the New York Fed, noting that while the probability of unemployment remains low, once unemployed, workers now have only a 45% chance of finding a new job—the lowest estimate on record. The S&P 500 Index hit another all-time high on Wednesday. However, the U.S. labor market, fiscal spending, and potentially excessive optimism about artificial intelligence in the market have prompted caution among some seasoned market participants. Chervone previously stated that the market is underpricing recession risks. "I won't short the bubble prematurely, but I also won't ignore the cracks," he wrote.