Bitcoin Clears $112,000 Wall, Eyes Return to $120,000 as Hodlers Double Down
Bitcoin has cleared $112,000, fueled by record holder retention and a yearly high in leverage ratio, hinting at a possible run to $120,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past the $112,000 resistance that capped its performance for weeks, now trading at $115,104.
On-chain data highlights two key trends: a rising holder retention rate and an uptick in the estimated leverage ratio, both pointing to strong hodling sentiment. These signals suggest that long-term conviction remains intact, and if buying momentum sustains, BTC could soon attempt to reclaim the $120,000 level.
Bitcoin Holder Conviction Hits 2025 High
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) holders continue to display conviction, with the coin’s Holder Retention Rate climbing steadily since August 6. At press time, the metric stands at 80.49%, marking its year-to-date high.
The Holder Retention Rate tracks the percentage of addresses that maintain a balance of BTC across consecutive 30-day periods. Simply, it reflects how many investors continue to hold onto their coins month after month.
BTC’s climbing Holder Retention Rate is notable because it traded in a sideways pattern for most of August, struggling to gain momentum. Such lackluster price action usually prompts traders to exit positions.
Instead, the steady rally in BTC’s Holder Retention Rate shows that most investors opted to ride out the consolidation phase, confirming their long-term outlook on the asset.
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BTC Holder Retention Rate. Source:
Glassnode
Bitcoin ELR Hits Yearly High, Traders Signal Stronger Conviction
Bullish sentiment among its derivatives traders has also strengthened, highlighted by the coin’s surging estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges. At press time, this is 0.26, also sitting at its highest level since the year began.
BTC Estimated Leverage Ratio. Source:
CryptoQuant
The ELR measures the average leverage traders apply to BTC positions on exchanges. It is calculated by dividing open interest by the exchange’s reserve for that asset.
A declining ELR suggests traders are reducing exposure, signaling caution over the asset’s near-term prospects and avoiding high-risk positions.
Conversely, a rising ELR shows that traders are increasing leverage, pointing to stronger conviction and greater risk appetite.
Therefore, the uptick in BTC’s ELR indicates growing confidence in the market, with leveraged traders positioning for further gains.
Bitcoin Rally Hinges on Conviction — $119,000 in Sight, $122,000 Next
If retention remains high and derivatives traders maintain their bullish conviction, BTC’s current rally could strengthen and push toward $119,367. A breach of this barrier could propel the leading coin to $122,190.
BTC Price Analysis. Source:
TradingView
On the other hand, a decline in bullish conviction could trigger a revisit of the $111,961 low.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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