Arthur Hayes Latest Interview: Fiat Will Continue to Depreciate, User Growth Is the Core Challenge Facing Web3 Companies

Chainfeeds Guide:

Hayes shared his unique views on wealth, risk, and the freedom brought by travel.

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Author:

ChainCatcher

Opinion:

Arthur Hayes: I believe the core trend is the continuous devaluation of fiat currencies. Take Japan as an example: its debt-to-GDP ratio has reached a historic high, making it a typical case of large-scale money printing. Inflation concerns are becoming increasingly prominent, with people struggling to afford housing and food, and wage growth lagging far behind the rate of currency oversupply. This constitutes the most fundamental economic trend. Against this backdrop, bitcoin always retains its value. Unless it can be proven that countries have stopped excessive money printing, holding bitcoin remains a rational choice. Although there is price volatility, in the 15 years since the genesis block was created in 2009, bitcoin has consistently maintained the best asset performance record in human history. Its fundamental driving force lies in the ongoing global devaluation of currencies. Creating products that are truly worth paying for is the core. Currently, many entrepreneurs focus on making products favored by venture capital rather than those needed by the market. Although they can obtain financing, even if they are eventually acquired or go public, the founding team may lose all ownership. In essence, they are just piling up unnecessary features with free services that no one really needs. Web2 companies often require long-term accumulation to reach a valuation of $50 million, while Web3 companies may achieve the same valuation within hours after issuing tokens. This difference reflects the fundamental valuation logic distinction between the two business models. Your data and content may be censored at any time by authorities, whether it is Elon Musk or at the national level. This kind of centralized control runs counter to the core philosophy of the cryptocurrency movement. We pursue data ownership and economic autonomy, aiming to eliminate the monopoly of government and large financial institutions through disruptive technology. The current architecture is clearly in fundamental conflict with this vision. Founders should focus on underserved niche markets. There is no need to pursue celebrity users; instead, they should build exclusive social credit systems for specific groups. By starting from grassroots communities and gradually establishing low-cost network effects, they can ultimately achieve ecosystem expansion. This is the effective path to breaking the monopoly of social media.