Upcoming US Fed meeting could push Bitcoin above $120 and usher in altcoin season in 2025

• Fed May Cut Rates in September, Favoring Bitcoin
• Stock markets at record highs ahead of decision
• Bitcoin nears all-time high as altcoins gain ground

U.S. stock markets ended another week at historic highs as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. The prevailing expectation is a 0,25 percentage point cut, with a probability of over 90% according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its interest rate reduction process at its next meeting, which takes place on September 16 and 17.The central bank's dilemma is clear: on one side, a slowing labor market, and on the other, persistent inflation. This delicate balance leaves Jerome Powell facing one of the most complex decisions of his tenure. Traders believe the priority will be preserving jobs, even in the face of rising consumer prices.

In the week leading up to the Fed meeting, Wall Street's three major indexes posted gains. The Dow Jones advanced nearly 1%, snapping three consecutive weeks of declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best performance since August, boosted by expectations of a shift in monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields remained near recent lows. Gold re-established record highs, and U.S. mortgage rates fell from 6,5% to 6,35%, the biggest weekly drop in a year, according to Freddie Mac data.

Powell's press conference and the Fed's quarterly report on interest rate projections are expected to focus attention. In June, policymakers suggested up to two cuts in 2025, but internal disagreements revealed significant uncertainty about the policy direction.

On the economic front, unemployment benefit claims reached their highest level in four years, while job creation in August totaled just 22, far below expectations. The Consumer Price Index remained under pressure, with food, vehicles, and airfares rising 6% in the month.

On the international front, customs tariffs hit a record US$29,5 billion in August following new measures by US President Donald Trump, increasing price pressures.

Among market projections, major banks such as Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, and Barclays have raised their targets for the S&P 500. Deutsche estimates the index at 7.000 points in 2025, while Wells projects 7.200 by 2026. Yardeni Research estimates a 25% chance of the index reaching 7.000 this year, supported by strong corporate earnings and increased investment in artificial intelligence.

Oracle shares, which soared more than 30% after forecasting AI cloud revenues to exceed $140 billion by 2030, reinforced the optimism.

Bitcoin Price Analysis Today

Bitcoin is currently trading at $115.525, just 7% away from its all-time high of $124. In the short term, the $118 level is seen as a key resistance level. Overcoming this barrier could pave the way for a retest of the $120 region, considered the confirmation point for the resumption of the uptrend.

What this means for the cryptocurrency market

If the Fed cuts interest rates, there's potential for weeks of continued appreciation in the crypto market. Analysts point out that, in addition to Bitcoin, several altcoins could benefit from this movement. Ethereum (ETH) could break the $5.000 mark, while XRP could return to the $3,65 level. Solana (SOL) could surpass its previous record of $300 per token, and Cardano (ADA) could surpass $1,32 per token.

This move would be symbolic for the sector, marking a turning point after years of monetary tightening and high interest rates. The Fed's easing of policy opens the way for the strengthening of risk assets, once again placing cryptocurrencies at the center of global investment appreciation.