CICC: The Fed's rate cut pace may switch between "fast-slow-fast"

Chaincatcher2025/10/10 00:22

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According to ChainCatcher, citing a report from Golden Ten Data, CICC's research report states that the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle may be divided into three phases: "fast-slow-fast." The first phase will be in Q4 2025, with a relatively rapid pace of rate cuts, possibly 3-4 consecutive cuts. The first half of 2026 will be the second phase, during which the pace of rate cuts will slow down. As inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may need to rebalance the risks of declining growth and rising inflation, making it unable to continue cutting rates rapidly. It may seek to calm financial markets by stopping "quantitative tightening." The second half of the year will be the third phase, during which the pace of rate cuts will accelerate again.

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A survey released by the New York Fed on Friday shows that in October, sales prices for service sector firms increased at the fastest pace since 2022, with input costs remaining robust and supply conditions continuing to deteriorate. Businesses’ pessimism about the commercial outlook has significantly intensified, with the overall business activity index falling by 12 points from the previous month to minus 20.7, marking the weakest reading since March.

华尔街见闻•2026/10/16 22:46