Bitwise CIO: Gold Signals Bitcoin's Next Milestone

• Bitwise sees gold as a roadmap for bitcoin.
• ETFs and treasuries support demand for BTC.
• Falling supply could unlock new Bitcoin high.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, drew a direct parallel between gold's 2025 surge and Bitcoin's (BTC) recent sideways movement. He believes the precious metal has risen about 57% this year, supported by a single, persistent marginal buyer—central banks—and this dynamic offers a "playbook" for how bull cycles can unfold when the seller base dries up.

In the case of BTC, the CIO argues that there hasn't yet been a structural buyer equivalent to gold's central banks. Filling this gap are spot ETFs and corporate balance sheets, which have been absorbing supply while the price fluctuates in a narrow range between approximately $108.000 and $112.000. The reading is that buying power already exists, but still finds sellers willing to meet demand.

"When central banks began feverishly buying gold in 2022 and pushing up prices, these investors sold to meet the growing demand. But eventually, this group of sellers exhausted itself, and prices soared."

wrote Hougan. The thesis is that a similar response could emerge in Bitcoin as the pace of purchases via ETFs and treasuries continues, reducing the available supply on exchanges.

Since January 2024, institutional channels and companies have reportedly accumulated approximately 1,39 million BTC—a volume far exceeding the new issuance during the period, especially after the halvings. Even so, recent liquidations and irregular flows have delayed a price breakout. Even so, net inflows into spot ETFs have resumed after a realization of approximately $19 billion, suggesting resilient institutional appetite.

For Hougan, the inflection point will come when the "stock of price-sensitive sellers" dwindles, allowing BTC to reflect the on-chain supply constraint. In his closing remarks to clients:

"Don't look at gold's meteoric rise with envy. Look at it with anticipation. It may end up showing us where bitcoin is headed."

Bitwise maintains its projection of $200.000 for BTC by the end of the year. Based on current prices, a rise of nearly 85% would be necessary to reach the target, should the combination of ETF flows and a decline in tradable supply accelerate a structural break.