- Bitcoin breaks below year-long trendline and loses 20/50/100-day EMAs, shifting short-term momentum to sellers.
- Exchange outflows hit $162M, showing reduced demand and signaling that buyers are not stepping in aggressively.
- Derivatives market unwinds, with $382M in long liquidations and open interest down more than 4 percent.
Bitcoin price today trades near $104,480, slipping below the rising trendline that supported the entire 2025 uptrend. The chart shows price breaking from a year long symmetrical structure, a shift that places the spotlight on the psychological support zone near $100,000. Momentum has weakened as leveraged positions unwind, and buyers have not stepped in with force.
Price Tests Long Term Trendline As EMAs Flip Into Resistance
BTC Price Action (Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin price action turned lower after failing to reclaim the 20 day and 50 day EMAs near $112,000. Both moving averages rejected price in back to back sessions, showing that sellers control short term momentum. The 100 day EMA near $110,250 has now become a ceiling, not a support.
The rising trendline from April, the same one that cushioned every major dip this year, is now broken. Selling pressure increased once price pushed beneath it. The 200 day EMA near $108,355 is the last major technical barrier before Bitcoin faces a clear path toward $102,000 and $100,000. The cluster of levels between $108,000 and $110,000 will decide whether this breakdown becomes a full trend change.
If price closes below $100,000, the next strong demand zone sits near $96,500. If price climbs back above $112,000, the failed breakdown becomes a bear trap and sets the stage for a rebound toward $116,000 and $124,000..
Spot Outflows Signal Reduced Demand
BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Spot flow data confirms risk reduction. Coinglass recorded $162.07 million in outflows on November 4, adding to the multi week trend of red bars. Persistent outflows indicate that investors are moving coins off exchanges, often a sign of lowered appetite for active trading or accumulation.
The on balance volume line has drifted sideways since August. No surge in accumulation has appeared during this pullback. Without strong inflows, rallies lack conviction and fade quickly. This is why every recovery attempt has struggled near the EMA cluster.
Derivatives Market Shows Long Positions Unwinding
BTC Derivative Analysis (Source: Coinglass)
The futures market aligns with the weakness seen in spot flows. Open interest fell 4.17 percent to $68.20 billion, signaling that traders are closing positions rather than adding new leverage. Long liquidations totaled $382.73 million in the past 12 hours, confirming that forced selling contributed to the recent drop.
Volume in the futures and options market jumped to $125.78 billion and $7.05 billion, which shows hedging rather than accumulation. Funding rates remain neutral across major exchanges. Traders are defensive, not aggressive.
Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?
The next seventy two hours set the tone for Bitcoin. Buyers need to hold the $102,000 to $100,000 zone to keep the broader structure intact. A decisive close above the EMA cluster near $112,000 signals strength and opens the path toward $116,000 and higher targets. If spot inflows shift back to positive, it confirms that demand has returned and the recent breakdown was only a shakeout.
Failure to defend $100,000 invites momentum selling and exposes deeper support near $96,500, which would mark a shift from pullback to correction. At the moment, Bitcoin’s long term trend remains bullish, but short term momentum favors sellers. A close above $112,000 restores control to buyers, while continued rejection at that level keeps Bitcoin price today at risk of further downside.
