Oral arguments in the Trump tariff case are about to begin, with a reported 61% probability of losing the case

ChainCatcher news, the probability of Trump losing the Supreme Court tariff case on Polymarket is currently reported at 61%. Bettors expect that the Supreme Court is likely to reject Trump's argument that "comprehensive global tariffs can be implemented without congressional approval." In a few hours, the oral arguments over the scope of presidential emergency economic powers are about to begin. (Oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court usually start at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, which is 11 p.m. Beijing time today.)

As previously reported by BlockBeats, the U.S. Supreme Court will hold oral arguments today on whether Trump can impose tariffs under IEEPA. The core issue of the case is whether the president can impose broad tariffs on imports from around the world based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The impact of the case goes far beyond trade policy itself; the Supreme Court's decision will determine whether the president can bypass Congress by invoking emergency powers, thus making such practices a tool for routine governance, and will have far-reaching implications for the constitutional separation of powers and the limits of presidential authority.