Bitcoin's 'IPO moment' means the days of 1% BTC allocations are over, Bitwise CIO says

Bitcoin's sideways slog reveals its "IPO moment has arrived," Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in a note to clients late Tuesday, drawing on a recent piece from Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser, and arguing that the setup is "extremely bullish" and "the days of 1% bitcoin allocations are over."

Much to the frustration of many participants, bitcoin has effectively traded flat for most of 2025, up just 9% year-to-date — compared with 15% for the S&P 500, 20% for the Nasdaq Composite, and 51% for gold —briefly dropping below the $100,000 level again on Tuesday. That's despite strong ETF flows, "stunning" regulatory progress, and growing institutional demand, Hougan noted.

Visser compared bitcoin's current phase to a "silent IPO," transitioning from a radical idea to a mainstream asset. Much like tech giants such as Facebook and Google after their initial public offerings — because founders and early employees cash out — bitcoin has moved sideways for several months as early adopters who made huge gains take profits while institutions gradually buy in, he said.

Visser argued that this consolidation phase is healthy, reflecting a shift in ownership from risk-taking pioneers to long-term institutional holders. With ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds now in play, bitcoin's market can finally absorb large sales without major disruption — signaling its maturity as a global financial asset, he said. But that process takes time, and only after that transition has hit a certain balance can it resume its upward march, Hougan wrote, acknowledging that Visser's framing is just one part of what's driving the market.

'Extremely bullish'

Many crypto investors reacted to Visser's piece with alarm, Hougan noted — worried that early adopters are offloading their bitcoin to institutions, and what do they know that others don't?

"That is the wrong read," the Bitwise CIO said. "Early investors selling does not mark the end of an asset's journey; it just represents a new phase."

The Facebook analogy shows that sideways trading after a major milestone doesn't preclude substantial long-term gains — its stock stayed below its IPO price for a year but has since risen more than 1,500%. Bitcoin, now in its own "post-IPO" phase, may not deliver 100x returns again, but still has significant upside once early holders finish selling, Hougan said.

Unlike the tech giants, bitcoin doesn't need to grow revenues or launch new products; it only needs wider adoption, Hougan continued, adding that once distribution stabilizes, its path from a $2.5 trillion market cap toward gold's $25 trillion could unfold faster than many expect.

"If you take the long view, bitcoin chopping sideways is a gift," he said. "I see it as an opportunity to buy more bitcoin before it resumes its ascent."

'The days of 1% BTC allocations are over'

Hougan noted that just as post-IPO companies are a lot less risky than startups, bitcoin today is far more mature and stable than it was a decade ago, with a wider distribution of ownership. Alongside institutional adoption and ETF trading, its volatility has dropped sharply, signaling its evolution into a mainstream asset, he said.

As bitcoin's risk profile declines, its returns may moderate but remain strong, in Hougan's view, arguing that for investors, that's not a reason to sell — it's a reason to increase exposure. Lower volatility makes it safer to hold more, and the traditional 1% portfolio allocation is quickly giving way to 5% as the new baseline, he said — something Bitwise has noticed in the hundreds of meetings the firm has had with advisors, institutions, and other professional investors over the past several months.

"Bitcoin is going through its IPO moment. If history is any guide, we should celebrate by buying more," Hougan concluded.