The myth of a 100% win rate shattered: Why did the whales sink in this tsunami?

Author: Sanqing, Foresight News

Original Title: The Myth of 100% Win Rate Ends: How Did the Whale Perish in the "Tsunami"?

On November 5, an anonymous whale who had achieved a 100% win rate with fourteen consecutive victories on Hyperliquid was forced to liquidate, with the account dropping from a peak profit of over $25.34 million to a net loss of $30.02 million, leaving only about $1.4 million in margin. This 21-day trading cycle began on October 14 with a precise short followed by a long, reaching the peak of the profit curve on October 28. In just one week after that, due to concentrated leverage, a market pullback, and a chain reaction of adding to losing positions, all profits and principal evaporated by this morning.

Image source: Hyperbot

From Accumulation to Peak

On October 14, 2025, the anonymous whale with address 0xc2a30212a8ddac9e123944d6e29faddce994e5f2 began a cycle of fourteen consecutive profitable trades on Hyperliquid.

He bought 5,255 ETH, sold all the next day for 22 million USDC, and shorted BTC with about 5x leverage. Just one night later, at 8:00 on October 16 (UTC+8), he closed the position, earning $2.6 million. This was his first consecutive win and also the cleanest trade of the entire cycle.

In the following week, he switched directions precisely amid volatility. On the morning of October 17, he turned long, added to his position twice, and expanded his position to $222 million. Before the market dropped in the early hours of October 22, he closed about $300 million in long positions in advance, making a profit of $6.04 million. This move, referred to in tweets as "the guy reacts fast," established his myth of a 100% win rate.

From October 24 to 28 was his highlight period. He continuously added to BTC and ETH in batches, kept leverage below 8x, and expanded his position from $274 million to $447 million. On Hyperbot's PnL curve, this was the only complete upward green line—at 6:12 on October 28 (UTC+8), the account's unrealized profit reached as high as $25.349 million.

This was the last time his PnL curve rose unilaterally. In the following week, the rhythm began to subtly shift.

From Taking Profit to Obsession

On October 29, the whale chose to close profitable positions first, while continuing to hold onto losing ones. At 4:00 a.m. (UTC+8), as the market fell, he closed $268 million in BTC long positions for a profit of only $1.4 million, and in the afternoon closed $163 million in ETH long positions for a profit of $1.63 million, leaving only the trapped SOL position.

Two days later, he increased his SOL position to a total of $105 million, with an average cost of $198.3. In the early hours of October 30, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell triggered a brief market drop, and he chose to bottom-fish BTC and ETH while also increasing his SOL position. That night, all three major positions were underwater, with an unrealized loss of $9.73 million.

At 4:00 a.m. on October 31, the loss peaked at over $18 million, but as the market rebounded, the unrealized loss narrowed, and the whale tried to hold on until breaking even. By 8:00 a.m. on November 3 (UTC+8), the unrealized loss had narrowed to $1.98 million, just one step away from breaking even, but he did not reduce his position. Just three hours later, the market turned downward, and all four long positions of the 14-time consecutive winner were again fully underwater.

He was only one step away from getting out unscathed, but in waiting and hesitation, he handed control back to the market.

From Stop Loss to Self-Destruction

In the early hours of November 4, his perfect record officially ended. He cut losses and closed $258 million in BTC, ETH, and SOL long positions, realizing a loss of $15.65 million. This figure was almost equal to the $15.83 million profit he had made in the previous 20 days and 14 consecutive wins. At this point, he still held $148 million in ETH, SOL, and HYPE long positions, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million, and only 8% margin left before liquidation.

The market continued to fall during the day. The whale was only 4% away from the liquidation price. His account balance had dropped $40.4 million from its peak, returning to square one with both principal and profits lost. As the liquidation price approached rapidly, any rational trader would have stopped, but instead, he added 2,196 ETH and 78,724 SOL at ETH $3,497 and SOL $159. The liquidation line was pushed even higher, with ETH liquidation at $3,348 and SOL at $151.6. ETH was only $130 away from liquidation, and SOL only $8 away.

On November 5, it was all over. At around 5:00 a.m. (UTC+8), he was forced to close all positions, leaving only $1.4 million in margin, which was almost equivalent to a total liquidation. Thus, this 21-day trading journey ended in complete wipeout. The $15.83 million profit from 14 consecutive wins and the $28.76 million principal, totaling $44.67 million, were all wiped out in a single loss.

Between Leverage and Human Nature

In Hyperliquid's trading records, almost every legend ends in a similar way: James Wynn once held a $1.2 billion BTC long with 20x leverage, peaked at $87 million in profit, and ultimately lost $21.77 million; qwatio rolled $3 million in principal infinitely, once earning $26 million, but ended up at zero; veteran trader AguilaTrades turned $300,000 into a peak profit of $41.7 million, but ultimately lost $37.6 million. And this anonymous whale, famous for his "14 consecutive wins," also saw $44.67 million vanish overnight.

Winning streaks can be achieved with skill and luck, but survival always depends on restraint. When everyone is intoxicated by the upward curve, the ending is often already written beneath the leverage.