Analyst: Bitcoin options show polarized long and short positions, with capital flows indicating a cautious sentiment

BlockBeats News, December 18, according to The Block, Derive founder Nick Forster stated that traders have clearly shifted toward defensive structural positioning, with the 30-day implied volatility of bitcoin rising to nearly 45%, while the skew remains around -5%; longer-term skew is also anchored at this level for the first and second quarters of next year.

Around the upcoming expiry date, market positions show a clear polarization. At the $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices, call option positions are continuously accumulating, indicating that some traders are still betting on a strong rebound in bitcoin.

However, overall capital flows indicate a stronger sense of caution. Forster pointed out that bears are accumulating "a considerable amount of put option exposure" near the $85,000 strike price to guard against bitcoin falling below this key level in the short term. He added that the implied probability from options still reflects a challenging market environment: the market only gives bitcoin about a 30% chance of reaching $100,000, while the probability of reclaiming its all-time high is only about 10%.