JPMorgan reiterates: Stablecoin market size is not expected to reach $1 trillion by 2028 | PANews

PANews, December 19 — According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts reiterated their expectation that the stablecoin market is unlikely to reach the trillion-dollar level in the coming years, and its growth will likely keep pace with the broader cryptocurrency market rather than significantly outpace it. Their report points out that this year, the stablecoin market has expanded by about $100 billion, surpassing the $300 billion mark, with growth mainly concentrated in the two major mainstream stablecoins. This confirms their long-standing view that stablecoin growth is still primarily driven by activities within the crypto ecosystem. In just this year alone, driven by a surge in perpetual futures trading, the stablecoin holdings on derivatives exchanges increased by about $20 billion, and this activity remains the main driving force for stablecoin supply growth. Therefore, in the coming years, the stablecoin market size may continue to grow in sync with the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization, and is expected to reach $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028, far below the most optimistic expectations of $2 trillion to $4 trillion.

Although payment-related use cases are expanding, this does not necessarily mean that the stablecoin market capitalization will see substantial growth. As stablecoins become more deeply integrated into payment systems, their velocity of circulation will become more important than their absolute outstanding supply. With the increasing adoption of stablecoins, banks are increasingly exploring tokenized deposits, which are designed to mitigate the risks associated with stablecoins. In addition, regional CBDC projects, as another competitive force, may reduce reliance on privately issued stablecoins, especially in institutional and cross-border use cases.