Strong Demand Cannot Hide Supply Anxiety, Nvidia Emphasizes Two-Year Production Lock-in Plan

Morgan Stanley’s quant team has warned that the sell-off in semiconductor and data center stocks is not over yet, as the current trend of the chip index resembles that of the internet bubble in 2000, indicating continued medium-term downside risk. They recommend taking advantage of rebounds to reduce positions, increase allocation to low-volatility and value stocks, and position in AI application companies. The report points out that the AI theme is shifting from upstream infrastructure to downstream applications, with AI adoption companies demonstrating relative resilience.

JPMorgan pointed out that based on approximately 80 years of historical data, if the current forecast for forward EPS growth exceeding 20% is achieved, the S&P 500 has the capacity to absorb a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to the 5.5%-6.0% range—especially under the premise that AI-driven productivity growth supports a high valuation environment.