Political impasse likely to delay crypto law in the US until 2027.

• Crypto law faces delay due to conflict of interest.
• Democrats and Republicans stall regulatory agreement.
• The Clarity Act continues as a partial path to 2026.

A comprehensive bill to regulate the cryptocurrency market in the United States is likely to face significant delays, with approval unlikely before 2027 and full implementation only around 2029. This assessment comes from a recent analysis by TD Cowen, which points to political disputes over conflict of interest rules as the main factor stalling the legislative process.

According to the report, the proposed market structuring, often associated with the so-called Clarity Act, faces resistance due to the demand for ethical safeguards advocated by Democratic lawmakers. These rules would seek to prevent high-ranking government officials, including the current US president, Donald Trump, and members of his family, from owning, managing, or profiting from cryptocurrency-related companies.

For Democrats, such measures are considered essential to ensure credibility and institutional confidence in the regulation of the sector. Republicans, on the other hand, see this language as a red line, understanding that the immediate application of the restrictions would have a direct impact on the current administration, hindering any progress in the short term.

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TD Cowen describes this clash as a structural impasse. Without concessions, broader legislation is likely to remain stagnant. As an alternative, analysts suggest a possible political agreement that would involve postponing conflict of interest rules for about three years. In this scenario, the regulatory framework could be approved now, while the more sensitive ethical provisions would be left for a future government.

The report also highlights the electoral calculations behind the legislative pace. There is a perception that Democrats may lack incentives to accelerate approval in 2026 if they deem it plausible to regain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. A potential shift in the balance of power would allow for reopening the debate on ethical rules on terms more favorable to the party.

Despite projected delays, analysis indicates that Congress has not abandoned the regulatory agenda for cryptocurrencies. The expectation is that negotiations will continue into 2026 through the CLARITY Act, seen as a more restricted, yet viable, instrument for gradual progress in defining competencies and market rules.

While the debate continues, companies and industry participants remain operating in an environment of prolonged regulatory uncertainty. TD Cowen assesses that, although the political momentum surrounding cryptocurrencies is growing, deeper structural changes in the American market will still require time, ongoing negotiation, and solutions to ethical disputes that remain without consensus.