Analysis suggests that Bitcoin's four-year cycle may show structural divergence

The effectiveness of bitcoin's four-year cycle has become a focal point of discussion. Some believe the cycle should not extend to 2026, as ETFs have already absorbed $57 billion in capital inflows. On the other hand, some argue that the cycle remains intact, and historical patterns show coincidental timing; for example, on November 21, 2025, bitcoin's local bottom price is projected at $80,524, which coincides with the date of the $15,460 low on November 21, 2022. The market is closely watching the U.S. crypto market structure bill hearing scheduled for January 15, 2026, which could become a key turning point in the cycle.