EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates around mid-1.6100s; Canadian jobs data awaited

The EUR/CAD pair oscillates in a range around mid-1.6100s through the early European session on Friday, though it seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from over a three-week high. Spot prices, however, lack any firm intraday direction as traders opt to wait for the release of Canadian monthly employment details before placing fresh bets.

From a technical perspective, the 1.1615-1.1620 region represents a confluence hurdle comprising a descending channel from the 1.6200 mark and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter sits above the 200-day SMA but has flattened, while the EUR/CAD pair remains sandwiched between them. Spot prices trade below the 100-day SMA at 1.6213 and above the 200-day at 1.6019.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned positive above its signal line, and a modestly expanding histogram hints at improving momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50 (neutral). Holding above the 200-day SMA support near the 1.6020 area would keep downside contained and leave room for a push toward the 1.6215-1.6220 confluence.

A daily close through the channel cap could extend the recovery. The MACD remaining in positive territory would reinforce the bid, whereas a slip back toward the zero line would soften the tone. An RSI break higher from 50 would add credence to an upside continuation scenario.

EUR/CAD daily chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)