Bitcoin Navigates Uncertain Terrain as 2026 Approaches

Cointurk2026/01/10 14:33

By:Cointurk

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

As 2026 approaches, Bitcoin is facing challenges in finding a clear direction. There’s a significant division of opinions among influential global fund managers, crypto companies, and on-chain analysis platforms. While some foresee new records on the horizon, others believe that the bear market hasn’t concluded yet. Bitcoin’s decline at the end of 2025 has led to reconsideration of the classic four-year cycle narratives. This complex scenario heightens the sensitivities surrounding investor expectations for 2026.

Institutional Optimism: Are New Highs on the Horizon? The Bear Camp and On-Chain s

Institutional Optimism: Are New Highs on the Horizon?

In the bull camp, prominent names like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase stand firm. They suggest that Bitcoin might witness a strong recovery in 2026, potentially soaring to new all-time highs around $150,000. Despite Bitcoin concluding 2025 in red, Bitwise and VanEck emphasize the possibility that the four-year cycle theory may no longer hold relevance.

This perspective suggests that Bitcoin may now move more in sync with the US stock markets. Particularly, a positive trend in tech stocks could elevate BTC prices. In such a scenario, a traditional severe bear market may not occur, or its impact could be limited. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, argues that the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) indicator is not yet at dangerous levels and the market cycle hasn’t peaked.

The Bear Camp and On-Chain s

However, not everyone shares this optimism. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, is cautious about the idea that bear markets have ended. According to Timmer, a critical threshold for Bitcoin is the $65,000 level, with a risk of retreating to $45,000 if this level is breached. He suggests Bitcoin might trade sideways for a year, gaining strength for another upward attempt.

On-chain data also supports this cautious stance. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin dipped below its one-year moving average in November 2025, entering a bear market. Ki Young Ju, the firm’s founder, highlights that the slowdown in the Realized Market Value (Realized Cap) indicator is reminiscent of past bear periods. This is seen as a potential risk that could weaken optimistic predictions for 2026.

Additionally, the slowing inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US further complicates market uncertainty. The recent decrease in net inflows in ETFs suggests that institutional demand remains cautious in the short term, which can pressure prices.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s journey into 2026 seems more dependent on macroeconomic conditions and institutional behaviors than classic cycles. On one side are strong players believing in new highs, while on-chain data warns of caution. This setup indicates that high volatility may be inevitable in the coming period, and investors shouldn’t rely on a single scenario.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

Amazon's free cash flow in Q3 plummeted to -$33.5 billion, four times higher than the market expectation of -$7.7 billion. The sharp decline was caused by the dual impact of $77.3 billion in capital expenditures and $48.1 billion in new debt in a single quarter. Although AWS's growth rate reached a five-year high of 39.3%, it still fell short of buy-side expectations, and its profit margin declined. The Q4 operating profit guidance of $31 billion was entirely below Wall Street and buy-side forecasts. The core issue is that for every $1 earned by AWS, nearly $4 in new spending is tied to it.

华尔街见闻•2026/10/30 04:26

Bank of Japan's "hawkish pause" implemented! Core inflation meets target, paving the way for rate hikes to return in December; amid AI selling wave, yen regains safe-haven status

The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged and, for the first time, stated that the underlying inflation rate has reached the 2% target. This milestone development paves the way for a possible further rate hike as early as December.

智通财经•2026/10/30 04:11

10% to 56%: USDC’s remarkable rise in euro-paired stablecoin trading

AMBCrypto•2026/10/30 04:06

Hedge funds are amplifying the risks of tech stocks!

Hedge funds are quietly making a risky strategic shift—from shorting individual stocks to shorting indices. This transition is accelerating the rise in stock correlations, and the “anti-leverage” buffer that once dampened volatility is disappearing. According to Goldman Sachs data, funds’ short exposure to indices and ETFs has reached a ten-year high. The VIX faces the risk of disorderly surges, and vulnerability to deep stock price declines is quietly accumulating.

华尔街见闻•2026/10/30 03:56