Goldman Sachs predicts: US economy will grow, inflation will be moderate and under control; the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice.

Goldman Sachs economists point out that tax cuts, rising real wages, and increased household wealth will drive the growth of the U.S. economy this year, while inflation levels are expected to ease. In the "2026 U.S. Economic Outlook Report" released on January 11 local time, Goldman Sachs mentioned that given the increased uncertainty in the labor market outlook, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts in June and September, each by 25 basis points. Goldman Sachs' specific economic forecasts are as follows: U.S. GDP growth rate in 2026: 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, and 2.8% year-on-year for the full year. Inflation indicators: As of December, the year-on-year growth rate of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will fall to 2.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will slow to 2%. Unemployment rate: The baseline forecast is that the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.5%, but there is a risk of "no employment growth" — companies may use artificial intelligence technology to reduce labor costs.