Wintermute: Whether the market can recover by 2026 depends on three major factors, and the market urgently needs an injection of frenzy momentum

BlockBeats News, January 14, crypto market maker Wintermute analyzed in its digital asset OTC market review: The traditional four-year cycle performance of bitcoin in 2025 is weak, and the altcoin cycle has almost disappeared. This is not a temporary adjustment, but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it highly depends on the following three key outcomes, with at least one of them needing to occur:

ETF and crypto treasury (DAT) companies expand their investment scope beyond bitcoin and ethereum. Currently, US spot BTC/ETH ETFs concentrate liquidity on a few large-cap tokens, resulting in a narrower market breadth and severe performance divergence. Only when more tokens are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries is it possible to restore broader market participation and liquidity.

BTC, ETH, and major assets such as BNB and SOL show strong performance again and generate a widespread wealth effect. In 2025, the traditional cycle of "BTC rises and then funds flow to altcoins" is basically broken, with the average altcoin rally cycle lasting only about 20 days (about 60 days the previous year), and most tokens continue to decline due to unlock selling pressure. Only if leading assets surge again can funds overflow downward and reactivate the altcoin market.

Retail investors' attention returns to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating in the market, but their funds are mainly invested in S&P 500, AI, robotics, quantum computing, and other high-growth themes. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (crashes, bankruptcies, liquidations), combined with crypto's underperformance compared to traditional stock markets in 2025, have greatly reduced the appeal of "getting rich quick" in crypto for many people. Only with a large-scale return of retail investors will the market regain its frenzied momentum.