Survey: Bank of Thailand to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged This Week, Final Rate Cut May Come in Q2

According to a Reuters survey, as the economy shows signs of gradual recovery, the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, with most respondents anticipating a final rate cut in the next quarter. Overall inflation has been negative for 10 consecutive months, registering -0.66% in January. Economic growth reached 2.5% last quarter, supported by government stimulus and stronger domestic demand. After a prolonged easing cycle, the Bank of Thailand has room to pause rate cuts. Among 27 economists surveyed from February 17 to 20, nearly 80% (21 people) expect the central bank to keep the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.25% at this week's policy meeting, while six expect a 25-basis-point cut. Between October 2024 and December 2025, the Bank of Thailand is expected to cut rates by a total of 125 basis points to support the economy. Among the respondents who provided a long-term outlook, 19 out of 23 expect the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to cut rates by 25 basis points to 1.00% by the end of June, while four expect rates to remain unchanged. According to the median forecast, after the expected rate cut next quarter, the policy rate will remain at 1.00% for the rest of 2026, indicating that the Bank of Thailand’s easing cycle is nearing its end.

Editor: Wang Yongsheng