Key Bitcoin onchain signal may mark BTC’s next demand revival

Onchain data tracking Bitcoin’s (BTC) investor profitability has dropped back toward the long-term average, indicating a possible valuation reset. At the same time, crypto exchange order flow shows an easing of aggressive selling pressure, with the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) rising marginally even as the spot trading volume dropped to $6 billion from $7.6 billion. 

These changes are shaping the expectations around when stronger spot demand may return for BTC and whether or not this would lead to a trend reversal.

Bitcoin valuation metric resets toward the historical mean

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish said that the Bitcoin market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has normalized after the prior +1 standard deviation extremes were fully reset.

BTC: MVRV extreme deviations. Source: Chris Beamish/X

The MVRV compares the market capitalization to the realized capitalization to gauge the investor's profitability. A compression toward the long-term mean places the valuations near levels that have previously offered improved risk-reward, though BTC has not yet entered a deep undervalued territory.

Likewise, the realized capitalization, which measures the total value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved onchain, has fallen to $1.09 trillion from its November 2025 peak of $1.12 trillion, a contraction of roughly $33 billion in network value.

The 30-day change stands at -2.26%, pointing to the sustained capital outflows. According to BTC researcher Axel Adler Jr., the coins aged three to six months now account for 25.9% of the supply, marking the largest cohort. Many of these positions were opened near the cycle highs and now sit underwater.

Bitcoin realized cap net position change (%). Source: Glassnode

Together, these signals describe the defensive phase. The BTC holders are not capitulating in size, while the new capital inflows have not yet reversed the realized cap trend. Adler Jr. said that the current trend remains “neutrally defensive” until the cap returns to the positive momentum.

Related: Bitcoin traders 'excess loss-realization' may push BTC price below $44K

Bitcoin volume delta shows the cautious absorption

The exchange flow data aligns with that stance. The Glassnode data shows the spot cumulative volume delta improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, signaling a modest reduction in the aggressive selling.

Spot CVD data. Source: Glassnode

The CVD measures the cumulative difference between the buy and sell market orders. The spot trading volume dropped to $6.0 billion from $7.6 billion, pointing to the thinner participation and the choppier price action.

In prior cycles, sharp CVD drawdowns during price declines have aligned with local bottom formation once selling pressure began to stabilize. BTC price holding within the $62,000–$64,000 range, alongside a flattening in CVD, may signal that supply is being absorbed more efficiently, particularly if spot participation begins to recover from current subdued levels.

Related: Bitcoin 'fair value' gap sets $45K target as AI woes haunt stocks, gold