Is XRP price setting up for a 20% bounce in March?

XRP (XRP) is down more than 50% since October 2025, with five consecutive monthly losses. Can March finally snap the bearish streak?

Key takeaways:

• XRP’s double-bottom setup targets 20% upside in March.

• Whale selling has cooled and larger-holder balances are rising, improving the bullish outlook.

Double bottom hints at 20% XRP rally

As of Thursday, XRP was forming what appeared to be a double bottom pattern after holding the $1.30–$1.35 support area twice in February.

A double bottom forms when the price hits the same floor twice an rebounds. It resolves on a breakout above the neckline, often setting an upside target equal to the pattern’s height from the breakout level.

For XRP, the neckline sits near $1.50. A decisive break above it increases the odds of XRP rising to $1.68–$1.70 by March, roughly 20% above the current levels.

XRP whale flows improve recovery chances

XRP net flows are shrinking toward neutral levels after spending months in distribution phase, according to data resource CryptoQuant.

As of Thursday, the total whale flow on a 90-day moving average was around -3.29 million XRP compared to roughly -33.50 million XRP in December. This shows that whale outflows have substantially decreased despite the 25% price drop in the same period.

At the same time, XRP supply held by wallets with at least 1,000 tokens has resumed its upward trajectory in recent weeks, suggesting that whales have stopped selling and may be re-accumulating near current lows.

A similar easing in whale flows occurred in April 2025, which preceded an XRP rebound of over 50%.

Therefore, a clean flip above zero would signal net accumulation and strengthen the case for XRP to follow through toward its $1.68–$1.70 double-bottom target in March.

What could spoil the bullish XRP scenario?

The $1.68–$1.70 area is above XRP’s 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, the red trendline), a level the price has failed to break throughout February.

A pullback from the 50-day EMA could keep XRP from hitting its double-bottom target. That may further trigger a bear pennant scenario with the price target at around $1, down about 30% from the current price levels.

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Macro risks are another headwind. The return of the AI-driven risk-off trade and US–Iran tensions can drain liquidity from high-beta assets, making it harder for XRP to sustain a breakout even if the chart setup currently looks promising.