KOSPI riding a sun-chasing pegacorn
Unsettling Market Sentiment Amid Credit Concerns
This week has been marked by growing anxiety over a potential credit crunch, with worries centering on illiquid private credit, private equity, and the stability of software and technology-related debt. Notably, major players such as Apollo have dropped by 8%, KKR has fallen 5%, and the regional bank ETF (KRE) has declined 5% today alone—amounting to a 10% decrease over the week.
Credit markets have a tendency to tighten or loosen at the most inopportune moments. Now, private credit investors are beginning to withdraw, reflecting long-standing skepticism that valuations were based more on optimism than reality. As the market shifts, the true state of these assets is coming to light.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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VIPCross-Asset Positioning Amid AI Earnings Scrutiny and the US Election
1. Markets diverged during the week. Between the October 23 and October 30 closes, BTC fell 4.78%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.98%, and gold and silver dropped 2.72% and 8.59%, respectively. The DAX, KOSPI, Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng advanced. We focus on differences in growth prospects, valuation sensitivity and risk exposures rather than applying a single directional view across assets. 2. Market reactions to Alphabet's and Intel's earnings brought returns on AI investment into focus. Attention is shifting from the scale of capital expenditure to revenue realization, margins and free cash flow. Lower interest rates can ease discount-rate pressure, but a sustained valuation recovery still requires support from both operating performance and financing conditions. 3. The November 3 US midterm elections and November 6 employment report are key events in the coming week. We monitor how post-election fiscal and legislative agendas may affect interest rates, the dollar and industry operating conditions. Our execution priorities are to manage leverage and concentration, retain margin and exit-liquidity buffers, and avoid treating a single political outcome as an automatic trading signal. 4. Following Binance's disclosure of a security incident, industry attention to endpoint protection, access segregation and coordinated incident response has increased. Key assets to monitor: BTC, the Nasdaq 100, crude oil and gold, alongside upcoming earnings from AAPL, AMD, PLTR, ARM, ANET and QCOM.
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