美国10月PPI超预期上涨，PCE或将面临压力，美联储降息步伐会受影响吗？

Data released on Thursday by the usa Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a monthly rate of 0.2%, consistent with the expected 0.2%, and the previous value was revised from 0% to 0.1%; the PPI annual rate recorded 2.4%, exceeding the expected 2.3%, with the previous value revised from 1.8% to 1.9%.

Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, the producer price indicators recorded month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively.

The PPI report showed that service costs rose by 0.3% after an increase of 0.2% last month. Prices for commodities, excluding food and energy, also saw a slight increase of 0.3% compared to last month.

For the week ending November 9, the number of initial unemployment claims recorded 0.217 million, lower than the expected 0.223 million and below the previous value of 0.221 million. Applications for unemployment benefits in the usa have fallen to their lowest level since May, indicating that demand for workers remains strong despite recent storms and strikes.

According to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, the four-week moving average of initial claims (which helps to smooth out volatility) fell to 0.221 million, marking the lowest figure since May.

Since peaking in mid-2022, inflation in the usa has been steadily decreasing to some extent. However, average prices are still nearly 20% higher than three years ago, which has been a source of public outrage, leading to Trump's defeat of Harris in last week's presidential election and returning control of the Senate to the Republican Party.

Although price pressures have significantly eased this year, a recent lack of progress suggests that Federal Reserve policymakers will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

The day before the release of the producer price report in October, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year last month, indicating that inflation at the consumer level may be stabilizing after slowing to its lowest level since 2021 in September. However, most economists indicated that they believe inflation will eventually return to a slowing trend.

Inflation has been moving towards the Federal Reserve's year-on-year target of 2%, and the Fed's inflation fighters are sufficiently satisfied with this improvement, having cut the benchmark interest rate twice since September.

The producer price index released on Thursday provides an initial glimpse into the trends of consumer inflation. Economists are also paying attention to it, as some of its components, especially medical care and financial services, partially constitute the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator—the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index.

Trump's electoral victory has raised doubts about the future direction of inflation and whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. In September, the Fed nearly declared victory over inflation and significantly lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the first rate cut since the economic devastation caused by the pandemic in March 2020. Last week, the Fed announced a second rate cut, which was a more typical reduction of 25 basis points.

Despite Trump's vow to lower inflation, partly by encouraging oil & gas drilling, some of his other campaign promises—imposing hefty taxes on imported goods and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants working in the usa—are viewed by mainstream economists as potential triggers for a resurgence of inflation. Nevertheless, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, Wall Street traders expect an 82% chance of a third rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December.

In 2021, as the economy swiftly emerged from recession, inflation began to soar, leading to severe shortages of commodities and labor. The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to its highest level in 23 years. The resultant sharp increase in borrowing costs is expected to push the usa into recession, but this potential recession has yet to occur. The economy continues to grow, and employers are constantly hiring. Furthermore, to a large extent, inflation has been slowing.

Editor/Lambor