Wood Mackenzie analyzes OPEC+ production increase decision, warns of risks in the Strait of Hormuz

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie expert Alan Gelder stated that OPEC+'s decision to agree on a higher-than-expected production increase after the US and Israel attacked Iran is not surprising. He pointed out that there is a high degree of uncertainty in US-Iran tensions, and currently, the "unsanctioned crude oil market supply is tight." However, Gelder warned that if tanker transport cannot resume through the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+'s decision to increase production may become ineffective. Although Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have alternative export routes, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Iraq's supply via the Mediterranean, these solutions cannot fully compensate for the losses caused by an export interruption through the Strait of Hormuz.