Oil: Price surge fueled by conflict and outlook ahead – BNY

Oil and Gas Markets React to Middle East Unrest

Bob Savage, who leads Markets Macro Strategy at BNY, points out that recent turmoil in the Middle East and an attack on a Saudi refinery have pushed oil prices up by 7–10%. European natural gas prices have also experienced a sharp increase. Despite these events, Saudi ports continue to operate, loading tankers, and OPEC+ remains committed to ramping up production in the coming months.

How Conflict Duration Shapes WTI Outlook

According to Savage, the length of the ongoing conflict will play a crucial role in determining the direction of WTI crude prices. If hostilities are resolved within a week, oil prices could return to the $65–$70 per barrel range. However, should the conflict persist for a month, WTI could surge by 15–20%, potentially reaching $85 per barrel.

• Oil prices have climbed 7–10%
• Gold has appreciated by 2–3%
• The US dollar is up by 0.6%
• Bond markets have seen both buying and selling activity

While the refinery incident in Saudi Arabia has altered market dynamics, ongoing tanker operations and OPEC+'s scheduled production increases from April are expected to help offset disruptions, particularly those affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

Savage emphasizes that the main factors influencing energy prices will be how long the conflict continues and how quickly insurance and shipping activities can return to normal.

He also notes that inventory levels and the ability to shift production outside the Gulf region will become increasingly important in the coming weeks.

In Europe, the spike in natural gas prices is even more pronounced and could have significant economic consequences, deserving closer attention.