While Bitcoin continues to trade around the $66,000 level, on-chain indicators reveal a renewed uptick in activity from major holders—commonly known as “whales”—on spot exchanges. Recent weeks have seen a notable increase in large transactions, drawing attention as these sizable addresses become more active during periods of price volatility.
Whale Ratio Climbs, Placing Downward Pressure on Price
The 30-day moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio—a metric tracking the share of large-volume transactions relative to total exchange inflows—has started climbing again. Historical on-chain data suggests that this indicator tends to rise during significant market corrections, as was observed during the previous period when Bitcoin plummeted by around 40% and whale activity intensified. A similar trend is evident today: as the Whale Ratio moves higher, the Bitcoin price remains under pressure.
The current pattern suggests that major investors are not waiting on the sidelines but are instead taking positions in sync with market movements. Nonetheless, a spike in whale activity is not necessarily a sign of immediate heavy selling. Still, as prices soften, these large players are having an increasingly pronounced influence on both swap and spot transactions.
Coinbase Premium Signals Weak US Demand
Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index—used to measure demand among US-based spot market participants—continues to signal subdued interest. The index has remained in negative territory for a sustained period, indicating that American buyers have yet to respond aggressively, even amid price declines. This divergence between escalating whale activity and a still-fragile broad-based spot demand is emerging as a defining feature of the market’s current structure.
With little sign of strong US demand in the present landscape, the chances of Bitcoin encountering resistance during any upward movements seem to be increasing.
Liquidity Flows Reflect Cautious Stance
Recently, net flows of USDC (ERC-20) stablecoin have turned positive, with funds moving back onto exchanges—a sign of rising liquidity. However, this increase has yet to be translated into notable Bitcoin spot purchases, as much of the capital is simply parked on exchanges without active deployment.
In contrast, net flows of USDT (ERC-20) continue on a downward trajectory, indicating a move away from Ethereum-based networks. Participants appear to be migrating capital toward alternative blockchains, particularly platforms like Tron, which is attracting greater interest as liquidity shifts between ecosystems.
Collectively, these liquidity trends suggest investors are not taking on excessive risk. Instead, the positioning appears defensive and measured, with a focus on caution rather than aggressive accumulation.
Volatility Likely if Spot Demand Stays Weak
In summary, markets characterized by proactive whale behavior but weak retail spot demand are more likely to see transaction-driven and flow-based movement. Under these circumstances, price volatility tends to rise, yet there remains uncertainty about the sustainability of upward moves in the absence of solid, ongoing demand.
The prevailing outlook indicates a market structure dominated by large holders, while US-based buyers remain hesitant. As shifts in liquidity persist, any upward attempts by Bitcoin may continue to lack firm support from broad-based spot buying.
